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Emmy Predictions: Outstanding Television Movie — ‘The Fallout’ and ‘The Survivor’ Speak to a Bleak Year

The two Best TV Movie favorites represent a debate about the future of the Emmy category.

“The Fallout”

Universal Pictures

Last Year’s Winner: “Dolly Parton’s Christmas On The Square”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: Technically the only chance for a streak is if Netflix wins again this year, after scoring an upset last year with “Dolly Parton’s Christmas On The Square.” For the last decade, the only major Outstanding TV Movie competition the streamer has received has been HBO, which has collected 14 Emmys in the category since 2000.
Notable Ineligible Series: “Rosaline” (the film will not premiere in time to be eligible); “Rise” (the film will not premiere in time to be eligible)

This article will be updated throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2022 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting will take place from June 16 to June 27, with the official Emmy nominations to be announced on Tuesday, July 12. The Creative Arts Emmy Awards will be given out over two consecutive nights on Saturday, September 3 and Sunday, September 4, with an edited presentation on the ceremonies to be broadcast on Saturday, September 10, at 8:00 p.m. ET on FXX. Finally, the 74rd Annual Primetime Emmy Awards will take place on Monday, September 12, and air live on NBC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

State of the Race

Some would argue the Outstanding Television Movie category is having an identity crisis, but why not welcome in the chaos if it creates an interesting conversation around these films that would otherwise get lost in the glut of SVOD offerings?

Central to the conversation is if films that were initially intended for theatrical release be judged alongside films specifically made for television. The thing to consider though is that even if “The Survivor,” one of the frontrunners, premiered at the Toronto International Film Festival, it’s still now being judged for how it played on the small screen — and that is how it should be. No matter the budget, because one can be sure they vary wildly, these films should be recognized for how they did or did not embrace the medium of TV.

Amazon Prime Video’s “I Want You Back” and Disney+’s “Chip ‘n Dale: Rescue Rangers” did seem made with the medium in mind, but were a bit more polished. What probably helped them is that both films were penned by seasoned TV writer duos. While the former serves as another example of how the best romantic comedies are being made on television right now, the latter takes advantage of the medium by being a little weirder and more inventive than what Disney would normally put out in theaters. (Poor Ugly Sonic will still never make it to any cinemas.)

“The House” is an interesting case study, since it would be the first animated movie ever nominated in the category, which is a shake-up voters should really welcome. What may be hurting it though is how it’s a Netflix film, and the recent layoffs at Netflix have greatly impacted the animation community, so it may be a tough project for voters from that community to get behind.

Another possible nominee that could go either way in light of recent events is “The Fallout.” The HBO Max drama, which won big at South by Southwest in 2021, was once the arguable favorite to win the Emmy this year. However, the film is about the ramifications of a school shooting, so voters may be triggered by watching the movie shortly after the Uvalde tragedy. The film did come out in January though, so there is maybe even a better chance that many saw the film before the latest epidemic of gun violence, and would like to honor a project that sadly feels all too resonant to where we are right now.

Predicted Nominees:
“Chip ‘n Dale: Rescue Rangers” (Disney+)
“I Want You Back” (Amazon Prime Video)
“The Fallout” (HBO Max)
“The House” (Netflix)
“The Survivor” (HBO)

Contenders:
“Fresh” (Hulu)
“Ray Donovan: The Movie” (Showtime)
“The Sky Is Everywhere” (Apple TV+)

In a Perfect World:
“Crush” (Hulu)
“Single All The Way” (Netflix)
“Three Months” (Paramount+)

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